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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although experts believe the party is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a election period focused on topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with several experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of division ensures that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. However, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks could take several months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a inclusive coalition led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.